Wednesday, September 12, 2012

The long and short of Telomeres, Life and Death

Biology is a fascinating field. It wouldn't be wrong to say that it is the highest form of technology! Who knows, one day we may even discover that brain and intelligence are a result of a phenomenon which involves very tiny things interacting at light speeds - relativistic phenomena in the quantum domain!


Ok ok, this flight of fancy is going too high, let's land it ;). No, I am not in the field of biology. I am a mere engineer, whose only remote authority over the subject is having scored equally well in Maths and Biology subjects in 12th Science class, after which I needed to choose between one of the the two. There are lessons from 12th Bio class that are forever sharp in my head (at least until some biological calamity takes over it :P). And out of interest, I like to read up stuff on the internet and in popular magazines.

Combining these, I think there is a strong analogy between cell divisions and iterative loops (FOR, WHILE, etc) in computer programs. So today...yes you guessed it...I am going to tell you why I think so! 

An iterative loop has a code within it. Cell has genetic code within it. When an iteration is running, the code executes. When the cell is alive, the genetic code executes. When one iteration is completed, a new iteration may start, or the iterative loop may terminate. Similarly, when a cell is done with its current life it may either divide (comparable to a new iteration of the computer code loop) or it may simply die (loop terminated).

To extend the analogy further, the termination of iterative loop in a computer is decided by a counter, or a condition, or both. Typically, a counter is increased or decreased once per loop iteration.  It is also checked before the next iteration. If it reaches a set value, the loop is terminated. Scientists  have found something in living cells which is very similar! At the ends of the cell's code, there is something called telomeres. They are like as the ends of a shoelace, that prevent DNA from unraveling (and from fusing with another DNA sequence). When the cell divides by a process called mitosis (there is another called meiosis which is different, but we will not go into that), its genetic code or DNA duplicates and one copy goes to the each new baby cell. But the telomeres at end of the two new DNA copies are shorter than in the original one. One may think of it as if the available telomere ends gets divided between the two new copies of the DNA (Though this isn't scientifically very accurate, as far as I understand). As the cell goes on dividing, generation to generation, the telomere length reduces, just like a down-counter in iterative loop of computers. When the telomeres get too short to be able to reliably hold ends of the DNA together, it is as if the critical or check value of iterative loop is reached. The cell dies instead of dividing. The loop terminates instead of going for another iteration. The cell reaching a stage where it can no longer divide due to limitation of telomere length is called cellular senescence (which in simple words, translates to 'growing old')

However that is not necessarily the only way iterative loops terminates in a program. We could have additional condition checks before re-entering the loop. And sometimes we can even abruptly exit the loop when some error condition is reached in the body of its code. Similarly reduction of telomere below stable length is not the only way in which cells die. Without even going to complex scenarios, we can all agree that for normal aerobic (oxygen breathing) cells, cell will die if condition 'Oxygen available?' evaluates to 'No'. So yes, our analogy does still hold strong!

Pretty cool similarities so far, isn't it? But there is even more! When you are inside the body of an iterative loop in a computer program, most languages let you to write some code inside the loop which modifies the very counter that controls the loops. If your controlling counter is a decreasing counter, you could choose to increase it somewhere in the code, so that you can have more iterations that originally set. Similarly, cells have genetic code which enables them to increase the lengths of the telomeres, which we saw earlier are very much like counters for iterative cell divisions. Particular genes of the DNA produce an enzyme called telomerase, and this enzyme increases the length of telomeres at the end of cell's DNA. This enables the cell to divide more times, just like more iterations happen in a computer code if you increase the loop counter from within the loop's code!

Now, if you are familiar with computer programming, you might be tempted to ask, what about infinite loops? Is there a parallel for cells? Yes indeed there is! In many lower unicellular organisms, cell division itself is the reproduction of the organism so cell division must be possible over infinite generations, for survival of the species. Such cells celebrate lavish telomerase parties from time to time, at the right times, to keep extend the telomeres between cell divisions. Thus an infinite loop is achieved where the control variable (analogy for the telomere length) is decreased in between one loop iteration to the next (at cell division), but is again increased by suitable amount within the body of the loop's code block!  Note that bacteria don't fall in this category. They have circular DNA, which does not have end points and hence does not have telomeres. So I'd say bacterial reproduction is like a true infinite loop by comparison, which doesn't have any control variable at all! Just a condition that always says "Go ahead to the next iteration buddy!")

Lower unicellular organisms are fine you might say, but what about higher organisms? What about us? Well, we have got both kinds of cells we saw above. 'Finte loop' kind, as well as 'infinite loop' kind. In fact stem cells in the embryo have plentiful of the delicious telomerase booze flowing! Those guys know how to party! In fact they can work and form the whole human baby precisely because of the plentiful telomerase! You should learn the 'Party hard and work hard' mantra from these guys ;). So we can say the embryonic stem cells are the 'immortal' kind or infinite loop kind that keep producing more and more telomerase, elongating the telomeres, never dying for a silly reason like "Oops! We ran out of telomere!" However as a baby develops and grows, the party mood mellows down. The various kinds of body cells (somatic cells) that the stem cells differentiate into are 'finite loop' or mortal kind. They do multiply, till their telomere length allows them, and there is some telomerase action at various stages, depending on cell types. But eventually after dividing and dividing they run out of telomere, undergo senescence (the 'growing old' of cells I mentioned earlier), and are no longer able to divide. This is typically the situation is various parts of the body of an old person and believed to be the primary and unescapable cause of death, no matter what a great lifestyle you have maintained throughout life. However it is not a grim and moribund tale right from the time embryonic stem cells are gone. A person has various kinds of 'adult stem cells' in various parts of the body. They have the telomerase activity going on, and divide into more stem cells as well as specialize into various normal body cells for tissue growth and repair. Some prominent examples include:
In bone marrow - There are various kinds here. Some produce continuous supply of various kinds of blood cells during life of a person, Some produce cells that line the blood vessels of person, and some kinds may even run off from the bone marrow and help maintain lungs, bones, teeth, cartilages and even that fat layer we all  hate to have ;)
In the breasts: Help the breast tissue grow during puberty as well as pregnancy.
In the intestine: They divide throughout life of the person and produce cells that line the small and large intestine.
Olfactory stem cells (In the part of nose responsible for smell) : Frankly I don't know what they are doing in there. Maybe because olfactory by its job description itself needs to interact a lot with the external environment, the cells need pretty regular replacement from wear? No article was very informative about this, but it seems like scientists have great hopes from olfactory stem cells for future research and therapy. For one, they show potential for differentiating into various kinds of body cells. Second they are easy to obtain, without invasive operation like other stem cell extractions need, and even from very old people who would primarily benefit from stem cell therapy for some tissue replacement. (Own stem cells are important, for body not to reject tissue from stem cell therapy)
In the brain: It is known that new neurons indeed grow in the brain, But there is some controversy whether this happens from neural stem cells which can go on dividing in lab condition, or from progenitor cells (that for from neural stem cells) which are capable specializing into types of brain cells, but only undergo finite divisions (unlike typical stem cells)
In the testes: They let the sperm cell production carry on throughout life. Final division that produces sperm is meiosis instead of the usual mitosis that takes place in other cells of the body, but let us not complicate things here. (Fun fact: In most cells of the body, telomere length reduces with age, but in the sperms produced, the telomere lenght goes on increasing as the man grows older! So it seems that when a guy has kids at older age, the child has advantage of longer telomeres. There exists a slight-counter view as well, which we will see later)

(Talking of sperms, I dug around the internet if similar telomere lengthening happens for eggs in females too. Couldn't find. Info welcome in comments! Also till recently females were believed to be born with all eggs they'll ever produce, with typically one egg released per cycle, and hence pretty feasible to manage without stem cells. Very recently they found some egg producing stem cells in ovaries too)

So from what we see, although most our cells are not capable of immortality through 'infinite loop' of never ending divisions, there are some brooks of 'life force' called stem cells which do keep dividing and help us alive and fight death for much longer than otherwise possible!

If you have been following closely, at this point you might want to revolt "HOW THE HECK is it fair that lowly unicellular organisms get to divide infinitely, while the so called advanced organisms, including us super advanced humans, are on such a cruel telomerase countdown to death, thoughout life?" Well, take it easy, nature/evolution is actually trying to help us! Yes, you heard that right, by killing our cells through telomere countdown, nature is trying to help us! Let us see how.

Let us say there is a simple little computer program. All it does is chime out current Greenwich Mean Time, every 5 mins, in a never ending infinite loop, and once every 6 months, it triggers another copy of itself to start running in the computer. Let's say nobody actually uses the time that these clock display. Let us say the copied/duplicated clocks also don't interfere with each other's workings anyways. No suppose some external mischief maker sets one of the clocks to Indian Standard Time instead of GMT and waits gleefully to see if things blow up or not. He gets totally disappointed! Since we said the clock programs are running pretty independently and are of no use to anyone either, it doesn't matter. The GMT clocks keep running and produce more GMT clocks every 6 months and the IST clocks keep running and produce more IST clocks each 6 months.

For single cell organisms, the situation is very similar to the above one. They just keep dividing infinitely. Each cell is a complete organism in itself and lives for itself. No other cell is functionally dependent on its existence in a direct way (We are not considering creatures that feed on these cells). Sometimes circumstances play as the mischief maker and the cell mutates, but it is no big deal. The other cells continue the old species, and this new mutated cell, if capable of surviving and dividing, can become a new species altogether! It does not blows up the whole setup. Of course sometimes these two species may become rivals competing in same environments for resources. But still mutation of one cell doesn't directly kill other original creatures. So nature allows the unicellular organisms to go on dividing infinitely, because although mutations are more likely at some point in unlimited series of cell divisions, they are not a problem!

But what about the complex multicellular organisms? If genetic code of some cell(s) mutates (most likely during cell division) in some organ of the body, the resultant cells may work in ways different than how they are supposed to.  Usually that cell will have odd surface composition and immune system will recognize and destroy it. But if those cells don't die or get destroyed for some reason, and grow more by dividing and eating into surrounding tissues, it results in cancer. So, the simple question is, how do we reduce the chance of such mutations? Very simple! Since the mutations happen and propagate through cell divisions, nature decided to simply restrict the number of successive cell divisions! So the big irony here is, nature wants us to DIE natural deaths by running out of cell divisions so that we don't DIE because of mutations that cause disruptions and cancers in the body! Funny huh?

And speaking as we are about telomeres and about cancer, we simply cannot move ahead without discussing the strong connection between the two. We said that cancer is caused by mutation of cell's genetic code. But then even if the cell has a very very badly behaving mutated code, it would die out after some generations of divisions due to telomere limit, wouldn't it? Well, here is the thing, most mutations that become cancers include mutations that enable strong telomerase activity. So the monstrous cancer cells keep producing telomerase, keep elongating their telomeres, become immortal in that sense. Thus they keep dividing and infiltrating the vital body tissues. This is why many cancer drugs target telomerase activity, not letting cancer cells to divide too much. However a small percent of cancer types are also found to have other telomere lengthening mechanisms, which are grouped under name Alternative Lengthening of Telomere (ALT). But long and short of it is, cancer cells are so fatal precisely because of the telomere lengthening, which in a healthy body cell would be 'life-giving force'! Another irony of life eh? Just like how we die of old age so that we do not die of cancer, as we saw earlier! Let me also bring out another, little irony. As cancer is likely a result of mutation during cell division, it is most likely in body areas which are rich in stem cells. The list of adult stem cells I touched above (which is not exhaustive) may ring a bell!

(P.S.: We saw earlier that as the male grows older, telomere length in the sperms increases). But since good telomerase length could keep normal as well as cancer cells dividing, there is a controversy whether the longer temolere length of sperms, as the male grows older is a boon or bane to the child born. Most opinions seem to be on the positive side. Let me give my own too (just an intuition, no scientific claims whatsoever!) I tend to think that just like the details of  computer code are ultimately serving a larger purpose, so do mechanisms of nature. If a male has a child at an older age, it means 1) The male survived till older age 2) Was still fertile at the older age. So maybe there is something really good about the male's genes, so nature has designed (through telomere elongation) to give these genes a better chance, a longer telomere countdown in the next generation! I would feel the same logic would have been neat in female eggs too, but like I said earlier, as far as my reading goes, telomere elongation is not seen in eggs as age increases :( . Also this does't mean that men should in general have children when older. While indeed the children will have longer telomeres, with increasing age, the sperm could have some mutations which were not present in the body cells of the father.(which we are assuming nature wants to promote, by giving longer telomeres as a reward for dealing with age well.). So yes, the child could have longer telomeres, but health complications from bad genes)

There, I am done explaining my basic understanding of cell division, its restriction by telomere lengths, the role of telomerase in extending telomerase length, and the connection of telomeres with long life as well as cancer. I have derived this from all sorts of sources read at different times, but now mostly in my head. The analogy of computer iterations is my own spin on it. I fact I started this post just to present that spin. But then biology is such a fascinating field that it naturally took over the starring role in the post :)


The more you read about this and think about this, the more fascinating it all seems. For example, scientists are already looking for ways to extend lifespan by forcing cells to produce more telomerase or supplying it to them. That is like controlling the counter of the iteration, like I explained. There is so much more to know, so much to tell. This can never end, because scientists are finding newer and newer things, and with a significant time lag, we are finding it out from them :). But still I must end. So let me end with some trivia:

-A number of companies are already trying to cash in on these discoveries. At a huge price, they attempt to tell you 'true biological age' by studying your DNA and telling you how much telomere you have left. This is not very meaningful though, because there seem to be many other factors, such as structure of the telomerase, which varies between people. For some structures, even lower lengths may be better than those of higher lengths of others.
-Females have an advantage over men in telomerase department. Estrogen tends to encourage production of telomerase. Perhaps that is one of the reasons women have longer life expectancy than men?
-While growing telomere length is mainly possible only if telomerase gets active, losing telomere length can happen through various damaging factors. Hence lifestyle and environment do indeed affect them.
-Childhood trauma & abuse, stress, trauma, long illness, etc can reduce telomere lengths at much faster rates than normal.
-Exercise & yoga  are believed to support longer telomeres as we age. This is by preventing telomere erosion as well as by initiating telomerase action, though exact mechanism is not well understood.
-Exceptions have been found to the idea that higher the age, lower the telomere length. e.g in a bird known as Leach's Storm Petrel, the telomere length is actually seen to increase as the bird ages! In some frigate bird varieties, the telomere reduction happens up to some age, but then it slows down significantly!

Well, that's it. It is high time I end this. A post with so many scientific tidbits should ideally have a list of references I know. But I have been writing this since a few weeks now, initially only from memory of what I have read, and then googling for fact checking, and then including some other stuff too that I learnt from that. Frankly I have not kept track of the pages I visited. It was wikipedia, some journal abstracts, some science websites, etc. But then I am not writing a PhD thesis or journal paper, so yeah I don't feel too bad about not having my references ready to quote either. But I believe I have remained factual to the best of my knowledge. Any corrections/controversies/discussions etc are most welcome in comments!


Sunday, March 11, 2012

Global warming is just Gaia meeting her needs?

Consider an electric motor. When you connect more load to it, it draws more power. It always had that power available to draw, but it tapped into it only when needed.  So the motor knows when its needs have increased and takes action to meet the increased need.

Consider your computer and its power supply. The powers supply (SMPS) of my computer is rated 450 Watts. But that doesn't mean it forces 450 Watts into my computer all the time. My computer draws power from it, only as much as needed, and up to that rated limit of the power supply. When much hard disk input/output is happening, the drive draws more power. When much calculations are happening, processor draws more power. The computer and its sub parts know their needs and draw power to meet it.

The picture at high level is the system draws in more power as its need increases. The exact mechanism may be slightly different for the motor and the computer, because they are different in their exact functioning too. 

But still, both are based on electromagnetic properties of materials. So when I make a broader generalization towards end of this post you might argue that I am making generalization out of a very specific situation of power consumption by devices running on electricity.

Lets see a more complex system - You! When you take up exercising, your appetite increases. Your body knows it is using more, and so asks you to send in more. The mechanism here is all sorts of complex biological process. 

Or let us look at even higher level example. When you know you are spending more, or are going to spend more in cash, you draw more cash from ATM/Bank.

And to go even further, suppose you feel your bank balance and current income isn't going to sustain your spending rate for too long, you try to increase your income!

In short, every system that needs something, or uses something, has some mechanism to obtain it. And when system needs more, there are in-built abilities in that mechanism to try to obtain more.

Now we come to the Earth. It gets energy from the Sun. We all agree on this. For millions of years, it was coolly collecting energy from the Sun and running its business normally. The CO2 in the atmosphere, was the indicator of energy consumption on Earth, mainly biological consumption. But then since the industrial revolution, we have started using energy at much higher rate. So CO2 has increased. So the Earth knows it needs more energy, so that the current levels of energy usage are sustainable. And this CO2 itself is its inbuilt mechanism for trapping more energy for use!

Now, I have heard some accounts of scientists saying that global warming may actually increase the vegetation on Earth. That further indicates to me that this is a predesigned mechanism of the Gaia or Earth's intelligence. Because outside of the current massive human intervention, higher CO2 would have just meant there are more animals breathing out CO2. Which would mean the upper layers of food pyramid have grown, and so to make it all still sustainable, the base layer of food pyramid - vegetation, needs to be increased.

So Global Warming is the correct 'solution' Earth/Gaia had figured out before us, to deal with increased CO2, or rather to compensate for what she thought the increased CO2 meant.

However by producing CO2 through industry rather than increased biological respiration, we are messing with Gaia's mind. So increased vegetation through global warming is not going to solve the problem or compensate for it. Or maybe I am wrong. Gaia does actually know that this increased CO2 is due to increased non-biological energy needs of the latest kids on the block - humans. But since she hasn't much idea about the sudden new systems made by these humans, she doesn't know the exact systems that will compensate for it. But at high level, she is still providing a solution "Ok guys, so you need more energy? Ok  abracadabra here is more!" And poof! Global Warming!

But since it is us who figured out new ways to consume more energy, we ourselves need to figure out more ways to harness this extra energy trapped by global warming. My power supply can give power to the computer. But computer must know or figure out how to use it! 

In fact right now a hazy picture is forming in my mind. Maybe, we will figure out how to use the extra energy of global warming. And then we will invest a sophisticated control system for adjusting rates at which solar energy is trapped. Sustain the industry by the global warming energy most of the time, and when we progress and need more energy, burn some more fossil fuels! Of course I am assuming that the technique to harness 'global warming energy' will keep Earth temperature to normal livable levels by using the energy up. And since fossil fuels would need to be burnt only to get more global warming energy, we wont exhaust them!

Monday, December 5, 2011

Moth, I am sorry.

A soft disturbance on my knee.
Nonchalant I flicked it casually.
Golden powder on knee I see.
And moth crippled nigh by destiny.
The moth could have been me.

Just a short poem at this hour of the night/morning to slightly lighten myself from what just happened. I hope I didn't damage the moth too much. One wing is very thinned, with no colour, and slightly broken at places. The other lush golden velvety wing tells me what a proud beauty the damaged wing once was, before I damaged it. The moth is sitting quietly. Flutters and jumps if I bring a finger near it. Hope it is able to recover, fly and live. I did not intend this.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Occupational Hahahazard!

A very famous cook who dearly loved his job, was crying while cooking something. Seeing this, his concerned friend asked

"What is wrong? Why are you crying?!"
"Oh, nothing these are tears of joy!"
"Ah! That is nice! What kind of joy are we talking about?
"The joy of cutting onions, of course!"


Yes folks, a silly little joke that you can be sure I made up while cutting onions yesterday.

BTW ever wondered how many onions do they have to cut to gather all the tear gas for use around the world every year? ;)

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

When I decided to Levy Straws on the reader

I always knew my life sucked. One day I found out why. Straws suck. My life, it turned out was a straw. And that is how it broke my back.
-The camel with a broken back.

P.S. : I wonder how the cat manages. It has nine lives. Would the tenth one have been the last straw? Does that mean I am the unsung hero? With even more lives than the cat?


P.P.S. : All this also proves that a drowning man clutching at the straws is basically trying to hold on to dear life. But then we knew that already.



P.P.P.S: Stupidosaur says (and not the camel) : Who knew it is possible to write about 15 sentences connected through unrelated phrases talking about drowning men, cats, camels, straws and how sucky one's life is while giving it all a touch of a philosophical fable and finally signing off giving it a title that is a horrible pun on some apparel brand (Levi Strauss) :P

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Dynamics of Dough'ry & Dough'ters

I read a blog post about a well-off couple's first hand experience of using up entire life's saving + additional loan just for daughter's marriage!


First of all this doling the dough is just wrong. But then I also wonder if it will be a feasible phenomenon long term. This trend cannot continue in India if another trend continues. As the sex ratio in India is getting more and more skewed, there would be a scarcity of females in the 'marriage market'. So even if there is a huge cultural barrier, wouldn't the law of supply-demand act out in the end? A 'commodity' with higher demand than supply would be at higher premium. The guys would become the needy ones. So dowry thingy should go away. But that is just the less extreme end of it. Being the rarer commodity in the market, maybe females will start demanding dowry :P.



Saturday, June 18, 2011

The secret of my good health



Ever since I heard that it is Tetra Pak that really protects what is good, I pour the juice or milk down the drain and happily munch on its box. 

Yeah that's how you protect your good health.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Lolitickly incorrect.

Teacher : O.K Little Johnny, I am going to test you on gender opposites.
Little Johnny : Yes miss.
Teacher: King?
Jonnhy: Queen!
Teacher: Good! Prince?
Johnny: Princess?
Teacher: Thats right! So tell me, King Kong?
Johnny: Ermm...Queen Congress?


Saturday, June 11, 2011

Up! Up! And Abbey!!!

Give Me Some Sunshine!
Give Me Some Rain!
Give Me Another Chance..
I Wanna Grow Up! Once Again!

Thus sings Phunsukh Wangdu before the second trial of his new GM seeds. The first trial failed. He plans to sell them under the brand them Up!

Friday, June 10, 2011

Compilers ignore comments!

Until I get more creative, here's something interesting.

It is a comment I made here: Cicadas: ready for prime time. At the time of publishing this post it is still awaiting approval.

The article talks about a particular variety of cicadas who show up only every 13 year and are currently screeching/chirping around in Alabama and Arkansas (USA states). The author explains one existing theory why they show up after such a strange number of years. I just added my two pennies worth. Here's my nerdy comment. Have fun ;)!

"Cool explanation. I thought a little about it, thought I would present the thoughts to maybe make this 'more complete' or at least add food for thought.

I think LCM (Lowest Common Multiple, since different people learnt different names for it in school) has a very important part in this, even more than a prime. The LCM of two numbers is their product if they have no factors in common.

e.g.
6 & 7 - no factors common. LCM is 42 (6X7)
6 & 9 - 3 is common factor, so LCM = 18 (6X3 or 9X2) is smaller than above even though 9 is larger than 7

So if our 13 year friend has 39 year cycle predator, every generation of the predator would still get a nice cicada buffet, even though that would be every third cicada generation.

On other hand, if our cicada had a 10 (2*5) year cycle, which is definitely not a prime, the twain shall meet every (2 * 5 * 3 * 13) ie 390 years!!! that way 38 cicada generations would heave a sigh of relief, and every 39th would be screwed. But that 'years of peace' is just the direct advantage. Additinally, the same predator's 9 generations would be devoid of cicada. If cicada were vital to their survival, they might be very dwindled in numbers, if not gone totally extinct. So more reasons for the 39th cicada generation to rejoice!

  --->So, if the cicada is looking at saving itself from just ONE particular predator ( as your article says "these loud insects are trying to evade A predator"), it would get maximum advantage by 1) having a life cycle years number which has no factors common with predator life cycle years number, even if it is not a prime. 2) Within constraints of condition 1, having as large cycle as possible.

But, therein comes the statistical aspect, and an important one. Does the cicada have to worry about just one predator? Most likely, no. And even if yes, does the cicada/nature know what the life cycle of this predator is? Again, we could lean in favour of no. In such a 'blind' or 'random' case, cicada's best option is to go for a prime number, because it can only have factors common with predator if the predator's cycle is a multiple of it's cycle. I that case, the twain shall meet at every preadtor generation (tough luck!) for such special 'multilple of cicada year's predator, and will meet at large intervals (product of cicada & predator's cycle years) for every other predator!!!

  --->So yeah, that way primes are best, if we don't know the predator's nature!

And hopefully, the things the cicadas eat do grow every year, otherwise such prime cicada's would hit puberty, come out happy to find no predators, and die hungry!!

Also, this theory makes sense only if, the 'adult cicada' eating preadtors themselves are in a biological state of feeding on cicadas for only 1 year (or such short duration of time that the cicadas are out)

Otherwise, say the cicada has 13 year cycle, and predator has 30 year cycle. Mathematician will predict many happy care-free generations for the cicada, (13 * 30 = 390, so only 390th generation needs to worry). But suppose out of those 30 years, the predator is in a state that can feed on cicadas for 5 years (adulthood suppose). Then well, the cicada and this theory are both screwed. Like this...

say year 0 of the cicada (13th year of last generation) was year 0 of predator (25th year of last generation). Then in the 13th year 1st generation cicadas are safe. But in the very next generation ie. in the 26th year, the cicadas are out just when the predator starts feeding! Shit! So if the predator has a large 'feeding band' of years, prime or its neighbour non prime would not make heck of a difference. cicadas with 13, 14 or 15 years cycle would be toast in their second generation. Rather the cicadas with 12 year cycle (non prime) will be safe at least in second generation. This is just a knee jerk thought, and a very conveniently picked example to illustrate it. I have yet to think whether primes still cope better with such 'band feeding duration' predators in the long run. I think in this case the optimum number might be a function of the 'ideal cicada prime' (if predator was not banded duration feeded), the predator cycle, and the predator feeding band years. Just an intuition. Maybe will work on it later, maybe not."



LinkWithin

Related Posts with Thumbnails